Impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the international staple agrifood trade networks

TL;DR

This study analyzes how the Russia-Ukraine conflict has significantly disrupted global staple crop trade networks, especially wheat, revealing structural changes and geopolitical influences on international food trade from 2016 to 2022.

Contribution

It constructs and examines international crop trade networks to identify structural shifts caused by the conflict, highlighting geopolitical impacts on global food security.

Findings

Significant network changes in 2022, especially in wheat trade.

Greater trade connection disruptions between NATO countries and Russia.

The conflict negatively affects global food trade stability.

Abstract

The Russia-Ukraine conflict is a growing concern worldwide and poses serious threats to regional and global food security. Using monthly trade data for maize, rice, and wheat from 2016/1 to 2022/12, this paper constructs three international crop trade networks (iCTNs) and an aggregate international food trade network (iFTN). We aim to examine the structural changes following the occurrence of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. We find significant shifts in the number of edges, average degree, density, efficiency, and natural connectivity in the third quarter of 2022, particularly in the international wheat trade network. Additionally, we have shown that political reasons have caused more pronounced changes in the trade connections between the economies of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and Russia than with Ukraine. This paper could provide insights into the negative impact of geopolitical conflicts on the global food system and encourage a series of effective strategies to mitigate the negative impact of the conflict on global food trade.