Global Shipyard Capacities Limiting the Ramp-Up of Global Hydrogen Transport

TL;DR

This paper assesses whether current global shipyard capacities can meet the projected demand for hydrogen transport ships, revealing potential bottlenecks and regional concentration issues that could hinder decarbonization efforts.

Contribution

It provides the first comprehensive estimate of global tanker demand for hydrogen transport and compares it with historic shipyard production to identify capacity constraints.

Findings

Potential bottleneck in shipyard capacity until 2033-2039

Diversification needed due to regional concentration of shipyards

Increasing demand for container vessels may hinder hydrogen transport scale-up

Abstract

Decarbonizing the global energy system requires significant expansions of renewable energy technologies. Given that cost-effective renewable sources are not necessarily situated in proximity to the largest energy demand centers globally, the maritime transportation of low-carbon energy carriers, such as renewable-based hydrogen or ammonia, will be needed. However, whether existent shipyards possess the required capacity to provide the necessary global fleet has not yet been answered. Therefore, this study estimates global tanker demand based on projections for global hydrogen demand, while comparing these projections with historic shipyard production. Our findings reveal a potential bottleneck until 2033-2039 if relying on liquefied hydrogen exclusively. This bottleneck could be circumvented by increasing local hydrogen production, utilizing pipelines, or liquefied ammonia as an energy carrier for hydrogen. Furthermore, the regional concentration of shipyard locations raises concerns about diversification. Increasing demand for container vessels could substantially hinder the scale-up of maritime hydrogen transport.