Mid-career pitfall of consecutive success in science

TL;DR

This paper investigates the distribution of hot streaks in scientists' careers, revealing a mid-career dip in successful phases linked to collaboration patterns, which has implications for research support policies.

Contribution

It uncovers the non-random distribution of hot streaks, highlighting a mid-career pitfall associated with collaboration dynamics and project involvement.

Findings

Hot streaks are more frequent at early and late career stages.

Mid-career researchers often lack close collaborations and large-scale project involvement.

This pattern suggests a 'mid-career pitfall' affecting consecutive success.

Abstract

The creativity of scientists often manifests as localized hot streaks of significant success. Understanding the underlying mechanisms of these influential phases can enhance the effectiveness of support systems and funding allocation, fostering groundbreaking discoveries worthy of accolades. Historically, analyses have suggested that hot streaks occur randomly over time. However, our research, through meticulous examination, reveals that these phases are not flatly distributed but are more frequent at the early and late stages of scientists' careers. Notably, both early and late hot streaks are marked by dense tie collaborations, with the former typically involving close partnerships with particular authors and the latter being characterized by involvement in large-scale projects compared with single-top or ordinary papers. This pattern indicates that mid-career researchers lack both intimate relations and resources to keep big projects, leading to``mid-career pitfal'' of consecutive success. This insight holds profound implications for the development of policies and initiatives aimed at bolstering innovative research and discovery.