Large language models surpass human experts in predicting neuroscience results

TL;DR

Large language models trained on scientific literature can outperform human experts in predicting neuroscience results, demonstrating their potential to assist in scientific discovery and knowledge synthesis.

Contribution

This paper introduces BrainBench and BrainGPT, showing that LLMs can surpass experts in neuroscience prediction tasks and are effective in synthesizing complex scientific knowledge.

Findings

LLMs outperform experts in predicting neuroscience experimental outcomes

Confidence levels in LLMs correlate with prediction accuracy

The approach is transferable to other scientific fields

Abstract

Scientific discoveries often hinge on synthesizing decades of research, a task that potentially outstrips human information processing capacities. Large language models (LLMs) offer a solution. LLMs trained on the vast scientific literature could potentially integrate noisy yet interrelated findings to forecast novel results better than human experts. To evaluate this possibility, we created BrainBench, a forward-looking benchmark for predicting neuroscience results. We find that LLMs surpass experts in predicting experimental outcomes. BrainGPT, an LLM we tuned on the neuroscience literature, performed better yet. Like human experts, when LLMs were confident in their predictions, they were more likely to be correct, which presages a future where humans and LLMs team together to make discoveries. Our approach is not neuroscience-specific and is transferable to other knowledge-intensive endeavors.