Assessing the Potential for Building Sector Retrofits to Mitigate ERCOT Electricity Shortfalls During Winter Storm Uri

TL;DR

This study models how building retrofits, including efficiency and electrification upgrades, could mitigate electricity shortfalls during extreme winter conditions in Texas, highlighting trade-offs between electrification and demand reduction.

Contribution

It provides a detailed analysis of how different retrofit packages affect electricity demand and shortfalls during Winter Storm Uri in ERCOT, offering insights for energy resilience planning.

Findings

Electrification with air-source heat pumps increases peak demand during cold temperatures.

Efficiency upgrades significantly reduce peak demand and overall electricity shortfalls.

Combined efficiency and electrification packages optimize demand reduction and resilience.

Abstract

This analysis investigates energy performance of the residential and commercial building sectors in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) during Winter Storm Uri. ERCOT electricity demand was modeled for the ERCOT baseline building stock as well as for the baseline building stock retrofitted with an efficiency upgrade package, an electrification upgrade package, and an efficiency + electrification upgrade package. The electrification scenario that retrofitted buildings with air-source heat pumps (ASHPs) would have lowered ERCOT daily peak electricity demand relative to the baseline scenario for every day of the year, except during the week of Winter Storm Uri. As the mean outdoor temperature dropped below -5{\deg}C (23{\deg}F), diminishing ASHP efficiency would have resulted in electrification scenario demand exceeding the two distinct baseline scenario daily demand peaks on February 15th and 16th (87.3 GW and 88.7 GW) to hit 111.8 GW and 117.5 GW. The efficiency package would have lowered daily peak demand on these days to 67.0 GW and 68.0 GW. The efficiency + electrification package would have lowered peak demand on these days to 81.5 GW and 85.6 GW. When electricity shortfall profiles were produced by comparing modeled electricity demand to actual ERCOT electricity generation during the storm, the results indicate that the electrification scenario electricity shortfall (1741 GWh) would have been larger than for the baseline scenario (1225 GWh) and the electricity shortfalls for the efficiency scenario (347 GWh) and efficiency + electrification scenario (704 GWh) would have been lower than the baseline. The efficiency, electrification, and efficiency + electrification scenarios would all have lowered summer daily peak demand due to improvements in building cooling efficiency and would have lowered annual electricity consumption by 5.9%, 6.8%, and 11.9%, respectively.