Dynamics of the temperature regime of permafrost soil in the vicinity of the main gas pipeline taking into account climate warming

TL;DR

This study models the temperature dynamics of permafrost soil near a gas pipeline over 30 years, considering climate warming scenarios, and finds that permafrost can persist despite significant temperature changes.

Contribution

It introduces a numerical model for permafrost temperature evolution near pipelines, incorporating climate warming scenarios and experimental data, to predict long-term temperature regimes.

Findings

Periodic temperature regime established in 12-22 years

Significant ground temperature changes under warming scenarios

Permafrost persists even under severe warming

Abstract

An initial-boundary value problem for an unsteady two-dimensional heat conduction equation in a bounded domain modeling the unsteady temperature distribution of permafrost soil in the vicinity of a main gas pipeline, taking into account climate warming, is investigated. The parameters of the mathematical model are selected in accordance with experimental data on gas transportation in permafrost areas. The problem is solved numerically by the finite element method. Modeling of the temperature field has been carried out for 30 years since the start of the gas pipeline operation. Calculations are carried out until the periodic temperature regime of the soil around the gas pipeline is practically established. Under the initial conditions adopted in the work, a periodic temperature regime at the top and bottom of the pipe is established in approximately 12 years, and a periodic temperature regime in depth is established in approximately 22 years. Two scenarios of climate warming are considered: moderate RCP2.6 and more negative RCP8.5. It is shown that significant changes in the ground temperature regime occur in the vicinity of the pipe under both warming scenarios. Nevertheless, the calculations demonstrate the preservation of permafrost even in a negative scenario of climate warming.