An Avalanche of Images on Telegram Preceded Russia's Full-Scale Invasion of Ukraine

TL;DR

This study analyzes Telegram posts from Russian milbloggers, revealing a massive surge in propaganda images, especially manipulated ones, before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, highlighting the role of visual content in political narratives.

Contribution

It provides the first detailed quantitative analysis of the increase in propaganda images, including manipulated visuals, on Telegram prior to a major geopolitical conflict.

Findings

8,925% increase in posts and 5,352% increase in images before invasion

Significant rise in politically salient manipulated images circulated

Highlights need for further research on visual propaganda's impact

Abstract

Governments use propaganda, including through visual content -- or Politically Salient Image Patterns (PSIP) -- on social media, to influence and manipulate public opinion. In the present work, we collected Telegram post-history of from 989 Russian milbloggers to better understand the social and political narratives that circulated online in the months surrounding Russia's 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Overall, we found an 8,925% increase (p<0.001) in the number of posts and a 5,352% increase (p<0.001) in the number of images posted by these accounts in the two weeks prior to the invasion. We also observed a similar increase in the number and intensity of politically salient manipulated images that circulated on Telegram. Although this paper does not evaluate malice or coordination in these activities, we do conclude with a call for further research into the role that manipulated visual media has in the lead-up to instability events and armed conflict.