The Almost Sure Evolution of Hierarchy Among Similar Competitors

TL;DR

This paper investigates how populations of similar agents evolve towards hierarchy, linking population dynamics to emergent hierarchical structures through theoretical analysis and numerical simulations.

Contribution

It introduces a comprehensive analysis connecting selection dynamics to hierarchy formation, including convergence proofs, predictive models, and numerical demonstrations.

Findings

Populations converge to hierarchy in probability.

Hierarchy formation can be predicted from population dynamics.

Numerical simulations confirm theoretical predictions.

Abstract

While generic competitive systems exhibit mixtures of hierarchy and cycles, real-world systems are predominantly hierarchical. We demonstrate and extend a mechanism for hierarchy; systems with similar agents approach perfect hierarchy in expectation. A variety of evolutionary mechanisms plausibly select for nearly homogeneous populations, however, extant work does not explicitly link selection dynamics to hierarchy formation via population concentration. Moreover, previous work lacked numerical demonstration. This paper contributes in four ways. First, populations that converge to perfect hierarchy in expectation converge to hierarchy in probability. Second, we analyze hierarchy formation in populations subject to the continuous replicator dynamic with diffusive exploration, linking population dynamics to emergent structure. Third, we show how to predict the degree of cyclicity sustained by concentrated populations at internal equilibria. This theory can differentiate learning rules and random payout models. Finally, we provide direct numerical evidence by simulating finite populations of agents subject to a modified Moran process with Gaussian exploration. As examples, we consider three bimatrix games and an ensemble of games with random payouts. Through this analysis, we explicitly link the temporal dynamics of a population undergoing selection to the development of hierarchy.