Active Region-based Flare Forecasting with Sliding Window Multivariate Time Series Forest Classifiers

TL;DR

This paper introduces an interpretable sliding window multivariate time series classifier for solar flare forecasting, effectively capturing temporal evolution and identifying key features, achieving over 85% True Skill Statistic.

Contribution

It develops a novel feature ranking method with sliding window-based sub-interval analysis to improve interpretability in high-dimensional solar flare prediction models.

Findings

Achieves over 85% True Skill Statistic in flare prediction

Identifies crucial features and sub-intervals for forecasting

Bridges gap between complex models and interpretability

Abstract

Over the past few decades, many applications of physics-based simulations and data-driven techniques (including machine learning and deep learning) have emerged to analyze and predict solar flares. These approaches are pivotal in understanding the dynamics of solar flares, primarily aiming to forecast these events and minimize potential risks they may pose to Earth. Although current methods have made significant progress, there are still limitations to these data-driven approaches. One prominent drawback is the lack of consideration for the temporal evolution characteristics in the active regions from which these flares originate. This oversight hinders the ability of these methods to grasp the relationships between high-dimensional active region features, thereby limiting their usability in operations. This study centers on the development of interpretable classifiers for multivariate time series and the demonstration of a novel feature ranking method with sliding window-based sub-interval ranking. The primary contribution of our work is to bridge the gap between complex, less understandable black-box models used for high-dimensional data and the exploration of relevant sub-intervals from multivariate time series, specifically in the context of solar flare forecasting. Our findings demonstrate that our sliding-window time series forest classifier performs effectively in solar flare prediction (with a True Skill Statistic of over 85\%) while also pinpointing the most crucial features and sub-intervals for a given learning task.