YingLong-weather: AI-Based Limited Area Models for Forecasting of Non-precipitation Surface Meteorological Variables

TL;DR

YingLong is a high-resolution AI-based limited area weather model that outperforms traditional models in wind forecasting and offers a cost-effective tool for wind energy planning.

Contribution

The paper introduces YingLong, a novel 3 km resolution AI-based limited area weather model that captures multiscale features and improves wind forecast accuracy.

Findings

YingLong outperforms WRF-ARW in wind speed forecasting.

YingLong has comparable accuracy for temperature and pressure.

The model effectively addresses boundary condition issues.

Abstract

Recently, artificial intelligence-based (AI-based) models for forecasting of global weather have been rapidly developed. Most of the global models are trained on reanalysis datasets with a spatial resolution of 0.25{\deg}*0.25{\deg}. However, research on AI-based high spatial resolution limited area weather forecasting models remains limited. In this study, YingLong, an AI-based limited area weather forecasting model with a spatial resolution of 3 km * 3 km is developed. YingLong employs a parallel structure of global and local blocks to capture multiscale meteorological features and operates much faster than the dynamical limited area model WRF-ARW. In two selected limited areas (one relatively flat and the other featuring significant mountain ranges), YingLong (with lateral boundary condition imposed by the global AI-based model Pangu-weather) demonstrates superior skill in forecasting surface wind speed compared to WRF-ARW. Additionally, it shows comparable skill in forecasting surface temperature and pressure. The accuracy of surface temperature and humidity forecasts can be further improved by applying better boundary conditions. YingLong also addresses issues related to the lateral boundary conditions of AI-based limited area models, such as selecting the width of the lateral boundary region and combining finer and coarser resolution predictions in this region. Therefore, YingLong has a great potential to generate cost-effective multiyear high-resolution synthetic wind speed that maintain meteorological realism both spatially and temporally, aiding in the planning and operations for wind power generation companies.