Meta-Learning for Neural Network-based Temporal Point Processes

TL;DR

This paper introduces a meta-learning approach for neural network-based temporal point processes that effectively predicts future events from short sequences by leveraging prior knowledge and modeling periodic patterns.

Contribution

It proposes a novel meta-learning framework that embeds short sequences into task representations and models point process intensity with monotonic neural networks considering periodicity.

Findings

Outperforms existing methods on real-world datasets.

Effectively predicts long-term events from short sequences.

Incorporates temporal periodicity for improved accuracy.

Abstract

Human activities generate various event sequences such as taxi trip records, bike-sharing pick-ups, crime occurrence, and infectious disease transmission. The point process is widely used in many applications to predict such events related to human activities. However, point processes present two problems in predicting events related to human activities. First, recent high-performance point process models require the input of sufficient numbers of events collected over a long period (i.e., long sequences) for training, which are often unavailable in realistic situations. Second, the long-term predictions required in real-world applications are difficult. To tackle these problems, we propose a novel meta-learning approach for periodicity-aware prediction of future events given short sequences. The proposed method first embeds short sequences into hidden representations (i.e., task representations) via recurrent neural networks for creating predictions from short sequences. It then models the intensity of the point process by monotonic neural networks (MNNs), with the input being the task representations. We transfer the prior knowledge learned from related tasks and can improve event prediction given short sequences of target tasks. We design the MNNs to explicitly take temporal periodic patterns into account, contributing to improved long-term prediction performance. Experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that the proposed method has higher prediction performance than existing alternatives.