Artificial Intelligence: Arguments for Catastrophic Risk

TL;DR

This paper reviews two major arguments suggesting that advanced AI could pose catastrophic risks, focusing on power-seeking behavior and the potential for rapid, uncontrollable progress leading to superintelligent systems.

Contribution

It provides a comprehensive analysis of the arguments for AI-related catastrophic risks, including objections and current debates, highlighting key concerns and uncertainties.

Findings

Power-seeking AI could lead to dangerous outcomes.

Development of human-level AI might trigger rapid, uncontrollable progress.

Debates on AI risks remain unresolved with various objections.

Abstract

Recent progress in artificial intelligence (AI) has drawn attention to the technology's transformative potential, including what some see as its prospects for causing large-scale harm. We review two influential arguments purporting to show how AI could pose catastrophic risks. The first argument -- the Problem of Power-Seeking -- claims that, under certain assumptions, advanced AI systems are likely to engage in dangerous power-seeking behavior in pursuit of their goals. We review reasons for thinking that AI systems might seek power, that they might obtain it, that this could lead to catastrophe, and that we might build and deploy such systems anyway. The second argument claims that the development of human-level AI will unlock rapid further progress, culminating in AI systems far more capable than any human -- this is the Singularity Hypothesis. Power-seeking behavior on the part of such systems might be particularly dangerous. We discuss a variety of objections to both arguments and conclude by assessing the state of the debate.