Predictive Analysis for Optimizing Port Operations

TL;DR

This paper develops predictive analytics models to estimate vessel stay times and delays at ports, using feature analysis and SHAP explanations to improve decision-making in maritime logistics, demonstrated through a case study on Brazil's ports.

Contribution

It introduces a novel predictive analytics framework for port operation efficiency, incorporating feature importance and interpretability techniques like SHAP, which was not extensively explored in prior work.

Findings

Accurate vessel stay time and delay predictions achieved.

Key factors influencing port delays identified.

Enhanced understanding of port operation complexities.

Abstract

Maritime transport is a pivotal logistics mode for the long-distance and bulk transportation of goods. However, the intricate planning involved in this mode is often hindered by uncertainties, including weather conditions, cargo diversity, and port dynamics, leading to increased costs. Consequently, accurate estimation of the total (stay) time of the vessel and any delays at the port are essential for efficient planning and scheduling of port operations. This study aims to develop predictive analytics to address the shortcomings in the previous works of port operations for a vessels Stay Time and Delay Time, offering a valuable contribution to the field of maritime logistics. The proposed solution is designed to assist decision making in port environments and predict service delays. This is demonstrated through a case study on Brazil's ports. Additionally, feature analysis is used to understand the key factors impacting maritime logistics, enhancing the overall understanding of the complexities involved in port operations. Furthermore, we perform Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) analysis to interpret the effects of the features on the outcomes and understand their impact on each sample, providing deeper insights into the factors influencing port operations.