Austria's KlimaTicket: Assessing the short-term impact of a cheap nationwide travel pass on demand

TL;DR

The paper evaluates the immediate impact of Austria's affordable nationwide KlimaTicket on public transport demand, finding a modest increase that diminishes over time, using advanced causal inference methods.

Contribution

It applies synthetic control and difference-in-differences methods to quantify the causal effect of a nationwide travel pass on demand, providing new insights into policy effectiveness.

Findings

Public transport demand increased by 3.3 to 6.8 percentage points due to the KlimaTicket.

The demand growth effect was only statistically significant with the synthetic control method.

The positive impact on demand disappeared in 2022 after the initial increase.

Abstract

Measures to reduce transport-related greenhouse gas emissions are of great importance to policy-makers. A recent example is the nationwide KlimaTicket in Austria, a country with a relatively high share of transport-related emissions. The cheap yearly season ticket introduced in October 2021 allows unlimited access to Austria's public transport network. Using the synthetic control and synthetic difference-in-differences methods, I assess the causal effect of this policy on public transport demand by constructing a data-driven counterfactual out of European railway companies to mimic the number of passengers of the Austrian Federal Railways without the KlimaTicket. The results indicate public transport demand grew slightly faster in Austria, i.e., 3.3 or 6.8 percentage points, depending on the method, than it would have in the absence of the KlimaTicket. However, the growth effect after the COVID-19 pandemic appears only statistically significant when applying the synthetic control method, and the positive effect on public transport demand growth disappears in 2022.