HiMTM: Hierarchical Multi-Scale Masked Time Series Modeling with Self-Distillation for Long-Term Forecasting

TL;DR

HiMTM introduces a hierarchical multi-scale transformer with self-distillation to improve long-term time series forecasting by capturing multi-scale features and dependencies, outperforming existing methods across multiple datasets.

Contribution

The paper proposes HiMTM, a novel hierarchical multi-scale masked time series model with self-distillation, enhancing feature extraction and forecasting accuracy over state-of-the-art approaches.

Findings

Outperforms existing methods by 3.16-68.54% on seven datasets.

Surpasses PatchTST in cross-domain forecasting by 2.3%.

Demonstrates effectiveness in natural gas demand forecasting.

Abstract

Time series forecasting is a critical and challenging task in practical application. Recent advancements in pre-trained foundation models for time series forecasting have gained significant interest. However, current methods often overlook the multi-scale nature of time series, which is essential for accurate forecasting. To address this, we propose HiMTM, a hierarchical multi-scale masked time series modeling with self-distillation for long-term forecasting. HiMTM integrates four key components: (1) hierarchical multi-scale transformer (HMT) to capture temporal information at different scales; (2) decoupled encoder-decoder (DED) that directs the encoder towards feature extraction while the decoder focuses on pretext tasks; (3) hierarchical self-distillation (HSD) for multi-stage feature-level supervision signals during pre-training; and (4) cross-scale attention fine-tuning (CSA-FT) to capture dependencies between different scales for downstream tasks. These components collectively enhance multi-scale feature extraction in masked time series modeling, improving forecasting accuracy. Extensive experiments on seven mainstream datasets show that HiMTM surpasses state-of-the-art self-supervised and end-to-end learning methods by a considerable margin of 3.16-68.54\%. Additionally, HiMTM outperforms the latest robust self-supervised learning method, PatchTST, in cross-domain forecasting by a significant margin of 2.3\%. The effectiveness of HiMTM is further demonstrated through its application in natural gas demand forecasting.