Corn Yield Prediction Model with Deep Neural Networks for Smallholder Farmer Decision Support System

TL;DR

This paper develops a deep neural network model for corn yield prediction that captures weather-soil interactions, optimized with a new ARSE metric, and tailored for smallholder farmer decision support via a mobile app.

Contribution

It introduces a novel DNN regressor that models weather-soil interactions using Kendall correlation and proposes the ARSE metric for improved accuracy.

Findings

DNNR outperforms RFR and XGBR in yield prediction accuracy.

Strong interaction between weather and soil variables affects yield.

The model is integrated into a mobile app to support smallholder farmers.

Abstract

Crop yield prediction has been modeled on the assumption that there is no interaction between weather and soil variables. However, this paper argues that an interaction exists, and it can be finely modelled using the Kendall Correlation coefficient. Given the nonlinearity of the interaction between weather and soil variables, a deep neural network regressor (DNNR) is carefully designed with consideration to the depth, number of neurons of the hidden layers, and the hyperparameters with their optimizations. Additionally, a new metric, the average of absolute root squared error (ARSE) is proposed to combine the strengths of root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE). With the ARSE metric, the proposed DNNR(s), optimised random forest regressor (RFR) and the extreme gradient boosting regressor (XGBR) achieved impressively small yield errors, 0.0172 t/ha, and 0.0243 t/ha, 0.0001 t/ha, and 0.001 t/ha, respectively. However, the DNNR(s), with changes to the explanatory variables to ensure generalizability to unforeseen data, DNNR(s) performed best. Further analysis reveals that a strong interaction does exist between weather and soil variables. Precisely, yield is observed to increase when precipitation is reduced and silt increased, and vice-versa. However, the degree of decrease or increase is not quantified in this paper. Contrary to existing yield models targeted towards agricultural policies and global food security, the goal of the proposed corn yield model is to empower the smallholder farmer to farm smartly and intelligently, thus the prediction model is integrated into a mobile application that includes education, and a farmer-to-market access module.