Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AI
Katja Grace, Harlan Stewart, Julia Fabienne Sandk\"uhler, Stephen Thomas, Ben Weinstein-Raun, Jan Brauner, Richard C. Korzekwa

TL;DR
This survey of 2,778 AI researchers predicts rapid AI progress with significant milestones by 2028, highlights substantial uncertainty about AI's long-term impacts, and emphasizes the need for risk mitigation research.
Contribution
First large-scale survey to quantify AI progress forecasts and long-term impact uncertainties from top-tier AI researchers.
Findings
50% chance of AI systems achieving key milestones by 2028
10% chance of machines outperforming humans in all tasks by 2027
Majority support prioritizing AI risk mitigation research
Abstract
In the largest survey of its kind, 2,778 researchers who had published in top-tier artificial intelligence (AI) venues gave predictions on the pace of AI progress and the nature and impacts of advanced AI systems The aggregate forecasts give at least a 50% chance of AI systems achieving several milestones by 2028, including autonomously constructing a payment processing site from scratch, creating a song indistinguishable from a new song by a popular musician, and autonomously downloading and fine-tuning a large language model. If science continues undisrupted, the chance of unaided machines outperforming humans in every possible task was estimated at 10% by 2027, and 50% by 2047. The latter estimate is 13 years earlier than that reached in a similar survey we conducted only one year earlier [Grace et al., 2022]. However, the chance of all human occupations becoming fully automatable…
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Videos
OpenAI Flip-Flops and '10% Chance of Outperforming Humans in Every Task by 2027' - 3K AI Researchers· youtube
Taxonomy
TopicsBig Data and Business Intelligence
