Pattern change of precipitation extremes in Bear Island

TL;DR

This study analyzes long-term precipitation data from Bear Island in the Arctic, revealing an increasing trend in extreme precipitation events and their changing patterns over the last six decades, with implications for climate change understanding.

Contribution

It applies the generalized extreme value distribution to model precipitation extremes and compares variability between two distinct periods, providing new insights into Arctic climate change impacts.

Findings

Increase in frequency of precipitation extremes since 1991

Significant seasonal variability in precipitation extremes

Long-term upward trend in yearly mean precipitation

Abstract

Extreme precipitation in the Arctic region plays a crucial role in global weather and climate patterns. Bear Island (Bj{\o}rn{\o}ya) is located in the Norwegian Svalbard archipelago, which is, therefore, selected for our study on extreme precipitation. The island occupies a unique geographic position at the intersection of the high and low Arctic, characterized by a flat and lake-filled northern region contrasting with mountainous terrain along its southern shores. Its maritime-polar climate is influenced by North Atlantic currents, resulting in relatively mild winter temperatures. An increase in precipitation level in Bear Island is a significant concern linked to climate change and has global implications. We have collected the amount of daily precipitation as well as daily maximum temperatures from the meteorological station of Bj{\o}rn{\o}ya located on the island, operated by the Norwegian Centre for Climate Services for a period spanning from January 1, 1960 to December 31, 2021. We observe that the trend of yearly mean precipitation during this period linearly increases. We analyze the recorded data to investigate the changing pattern of precipitation extremes over the climate scales. We employ the generalized extreme value distribution to model yearly and seasonal maxima of daily precipitation amount and determine the return levels and return period of precipitation extremes. We compare the variability of precipitation extremes between the two time periods: (i) 1960-1990 and (ii) 1991-2021. Our analysis reveals an increase in the frequency of precipitation extremes occurrences between 1991 and 2021. Our findings establish a better understanding of precipitation extremes in Bear Island from a statistical viewpoint, with an observation of seasonal and yearly variability, especially, during the period of the last 31 years.