A Framework for Modeling, Analyzing, and Decision-Making in Disease Spread Dynamics and Medicine/Vaccine Distribution

TL;DR

This paper presents an open-source simulation framework that models infectious disease spread and aids decision-making for resource distribution and mobility restrictions, inspired by historical pandemics and economic theories.

Contribution

It introduces a versatile agent-based simulation framework for modeling disease dynamics and optimizing resource distribution strategies.

Findings

Effective modeling of disease spread across diverse populations

Supports strategic planning for vaccine and cure distribution

Assists in mobility restriction decision-making

Abstract

The challenges posed by epidemics and pandemics are immense, especially if the causes are novel. This article introduces a versatile open-source simulation framework designed to model intricate dynamics of infectious diseases across diverse population centres. Taking inspiration from historical precedents such as the Spanish flu and COVID-19, and geographical economic theories such as Central place theory, the simulation integrates agent-based modelling to depict the movement and interactions of individuals within different settlement hierarchies. Additionally, the framework provides a tool for decision-makers to assess and strategize optimal distribution plans for limited resources like vaccines or cures as well as to impose mobility restrictions.