Agent-based Modelling of Credit Card Promotions

TL;DR

This paper develops an agent-based model to analyze credit card promotion strategies, optimizing interest-free durations and promotion windows to maximize profit and market share under various competitive scenarios.

Contribution

It introduces a novel agent-based modeling approach focused on optimizing credit card promotion strategies, calibrated with UK market data from 2019-2020.

Findings

Optimal interest-free period is about 12 months without competition.

Longest promotion window maximizes profit and market share when no competitors offer promotions.

Delayed response to competitor promotions reduces lender income by approximately 2.4%.

Abstract

Interest-free promotions are a prevalent strategy employed by credit card lenders to attract new customers, yet the research exploring their effects on both consumers and lenders remains relatively sparse. The process of selecting an optimal promotion strategy is intricate, involving the determination of an interest-free period duration and promotion-availability window, all within the context of competing offers, fluctuating market dynamics, and complex consumer behaviour. In this paper, we introduce an agent-based model that facilitates the exploration of various credit card promotions under diverse market scenarios. Our approach, distinct from previous agent-based models, concentrates on optimising promotion strategies and is calibrated using benchmarks from the UK credit card market from 2019 to 2020, with agent properties derived from historical distributions of the UK population from roughly the same period. We validate our model against stylised facts and time-series data, thereby demonstrating the value of this technique for investigating pricing strategies and understanding credit card customer behaviour. Our experiments reveal that, in the absence of competitor promotions, lender profit is maximised by an interest-free duration of approximately 12 months while market share is maximised by offering the longest duration possible. When competitors do not offer promotions, extended promotion availability windows yield maximum profit for lenders while also maximising market share. In the context of concurrent interest-free promotions, we identify that the optimal lender strategy entails offering a more competitive interest-free period and a rapid response to competing promotional offers. Notably, a delay of three months in responding to a rival promotion corresponds to a 2.4% relative decline in income.