AMLNet: Adversarial Mutual Learning Neural Network for Non-AutoRegressive Multi-Horizon Time Series Forecasting

TL;DR

AMLNet is a novel non-autoregressive model for multi-horizon time series forecasting that combines AR and NAR models through online knowledge distillation, improving accuracy and speed for long-term predictions.

Contribution

Introduces AMLNet, an innovative NAR model utilizing online knowledge distillation from AR and NAR teachers, enhancing long-term forecasting accuracy and efficiency.

Findings

AMLNet outperforms traditional AR and NAR models in accuracy.

The model achieves faster multi-horizon forecasts with improved realism.

Extensive experiments validate AMLNet's superior performance.

Abstract

Multi-horizon time series forecasting, crucial across diverse domains, demands high accuracy and speed. While AutoRegressive (AR) models excel in short-term predictions, they suffer speed and error issues as the horizon extends. Non-AutoRegressive (NAR) models suit long-term predictions but struggle with interdependence, yielding unrealistic results. We introduce AMLNet, an innovative NAR model that achieves realistic forecasts through an online Knowledge Distillation (KD) approach. AMLNet harnesses the strengths of both AR and NAR models by training a deep AR decoder and a deep NAR decoder in a collaborative manner, serving as ensemble teachers that impart knowledge to a shallower NAR decoder. This knowledge transfer is facilitated through two key mechanisms: 1) outcome-driven KD, which dynamically weights the contribution of KD losses from the teacher models, enabling the shallow NAR decoder to incorporate the ensemble's diversity; and 2) hint-driven KD, which employs adversarial training to extract valuable insights from the model's hidden states for distillation. Extensive experimentation showcases AMLNet's superiority over conventional AR and NAR models, thereby presenting a promising avenue for multi-horizon time series forecasting that enhances accuracy and expedites computation.