EpiGeoPop: A Tool for Developing Spatially Accurate Country-level Epidemiological Models

TL;DR

EpiGeoPop is a user-friendly tool that rapidly creates spatially accurate country-level population configurations to improve the setup and realism of agent-based epidemiological models.

Contribution

The paper introduces EpiGeoPop, a new tool that simplifies and accelerates the development of spatially detailed population models for infectious disease simulations.

Findings

Accurate spatial detail significantly impacts disease outbreak simulations.

Epiabm demonstrates the importance of spatial transmission and interventions.

EpiGeoPop reduces model setup time and improves spatial accuracy.

Abstract

Mathematical models play a crucial role in understanding the spread of infectious disease outbreaks and influencing policy decisions. These models aid pandemic preparedness by predicting outcomes under hypothetical scenarios and identifying weaknesses in existing frameworks. However, their accuracy, utility, and comparability are being scrutinized. Agent-based models (ABMs) have emerged as a valuable tool, capturing population heterogeneity and spatial effects, particularly when assessing intervention strategies. Here we present EpiGeoPop, a user-friendly tool for rapidly preparing spatially accurate population configurations of entire countries. EpiGeoPop helps to address the problem of complex and time-consuming model set up in ABMs, specifically improving the integration of spatial detail. We subsequently demonstrate the importance of accurate spatial detail in ABM simulations of disease outbreaks using Epiabm, an ABM based on Imperial College London's CovidSim with improved modularity, documentation and testing. Our investigation involves the interplay between population density, the implementation of spatial transmission, and realistic interventions implemented in Epiabm.