Measuring the impact of green retrofits on CO$_2$ emissions: London Housing Case Study

TL;DR

This study develops a method to estimate energy and carbon savings from residential retrofits and applies it to London's housing data, revealing potential energy, emission reductions, and financial returns for various upgrades.

Contribution

The paper introduces a novel approach to quantify energy and CO2 savings from specific retrofit projects using publicly available data, tailored to diverse housing profiles.

Findings

Average family savings: 9 MWh energy, 1,700 kgCO2, GBP 800 annually.

Heat pump installation in London: GBP 16.9 billion cost, GBP 450 million annual savings.

Loft insulation upgrade: GBP 1.4 billion cost, GBP 290 million annual savings.

Abstract

The residential sector is responsible for approximately 20 percent of the world's energy-related greenhouse gas emissions. In order to improve this reality, it is essential to help and support the leading actor in this scene, the homeowner. In general, buildings are complex objects as each home may have very particular parameters: different materials (windows, walls, types of roofs, etc.), uses, and habits. No two cases are identical. In this paper, we addressed this problem by proposing a method to obtain estimates of energy and carbon savings resulting from a class of retrofit projects and housing profiles. We applied our formulas to conduct a case study of the London residential sector, supported by the publicly available Energy Performance Certificates (EPC) dataset. As a result of a multi-project renovation of a house, including loft insulation, double-glazed windows, and energy-efficient lighting (LED), we found that the average family in the Greater London area could save approximately 9 MWh in energy consumption, 1,700 kgCO$_2$ in carbon emissions and more than GBP 800 on the energy bills, over a year, in contrast to a cost of around GBP 9,000 (or a return on investment of 11 years). In another example, applying the method to calculate what is needed to install heat pumps in each house in London, a total of GBP 16.9 billion would be spent, leading to savings of GBP 450 million per year (return on investment of 37 years). Finally, an overall upgrade to loft insulation would cost London households GBP 1.4 billion, generating GBP 290 million in annual savings (a 5-year return on investment).