Tracing the Snowball bifurcation of aquaplanets through time reveals a fundamental shift in critical-state dynamics

TL;DR

This study uses a coupled climate model to investigate how the critical CO2 levels for Snowball Earth bifurcation have evolved over Earth's history, revealing a fundamental shift in climate dynamics around 1.2 billion years ago due to changes in ice and wind interactions.

Contribution

It provides a consistent modeling framework to trace the evolution of Snowball bifurcation thresholds and dynamics over Earth's history, highlighting a key shift in critical-state behavior.

Findings

Critical CO2 decreases logarithmically with solar luminosity until 1 billion years ago.

A fundamental shift in critical-state dynamics occurs around 1.2 billion years ago.

Different ice stabilization mechanisms dominate before and after this shift.

Abstract

The instability with respect to global glaciation is a fundamental property of the climate system caused by the positive ice-albedo feedback. The atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration at which this Snowball bifurcation occurs changes through Earth's history because of the slowly increasing solar luminosity. Quantifying this critical CO$_2$ level is not only interesting from a climate dynamics perspective, but also a prerequisite for understanding past Snowball Earth events as well as the conditions for habitability on Earth and other planets. Earlier studies are limited to investigations with simple climate models for Earth's entire history, or studies of individual time slices carried out with a variety of more complex models and for different boundary conditions, making comparisons and the identification of secular changes difficult. Here we use a coupled climate model of intermediate complexity to trace the Snowball bifurcation of an aquaplanet through Earth's history in one consistent model framework. We find that the critical CO$_2$ concentration decreases more or less logarithmically with increasing solar luminosity until about 1 billion years ago, but drops faster in more recent times. Furthermore, there is a fundamental shift in the dynamics of critical states about 1.2 billion years ago, driven by the interplay of wind-driven sea-ice dynamics and the surface energy balance: For critical states at low solar luminosities, the ice line lies in the Ferrel cell, stabilised by the poleward winds despite moderate meridional temperature gradients under strong greenhouse warming. For critical states at high solar luminosities on the other hand, the ice line rests at the Hadley-cell boundary, stabilised against the equatorward winds by steep meridional temperature gradients resulting from the increased solar energy input at lower latitudes and stronger Ekman transport in the ocean.