Reducing cartel recruitment and upholding the rule of law is the only way to reduce violence in Mexico

TL;DR

This paper critiques a recent mathematical model of drug cartel sizes in Mexico, arguing that the model is undetermined and its main conclusion is invalid, emphasizing the importance of reducing cartel recruitment and upholding the rule of law to decrease violence.

Contribution

It challenges the validity of a recent model on cartel size distribution, highlighting issues of model determinacy and the robustness of its conclusions.

Findings

The model is undetermined and cannot reliably predict cartel sizes.

The main conclusion of the original paper does not hold under scrutiny.

Policy implications emphasize reducing recruitment and strengthening law enforcement.

Abstract

This paper is a comment to a recent paper which appeared in Science, presenting a mathematical model of the size distribution, in terms of manpower, of the drugs cartels in Mexico. I show that the model is undetermined and that the main conclusion does not hold.