Modeling a Coronal Mass Ejection from an Extended Filament Channel. II. Interplanetary Propagation to 1 au

TL;DR

This study models the propagation of a high-latitude filament eruption CME from the Sun to Earth, highlighting the importance of CME structure in predicting space weather impacts, especially for atypical 'problem storms' lacking clear solar signatures.

Contribution

It demonstrates the use of 3D MHD simulations with different CME configurations to better match observed CME arrival times and impacts at Earth.

Findings

Best match with a toroidal flux rope CME model

Different CME configurations affect space weather predictions

Event classified as a 'problem storm' with minimal solar signatures

Abstract

We present observations and modeling results of the propagation and impact at Earth of a high-latitude, extended filament channel eruption that commenced on 2015 July 9. The coronal mass ejection (CME) that resulted from the filament eruption was associated with a moderate disturbance at Earth. This event could be classified as a so-called "problem storm" because it lacked the usual solar signatures that are characteristic of large, energetic, Earth-directed CMEs that often result in significant geoeffective impacts. We use solar observations to constrain the initial parameters and therefore to model the propagation of the 2015 July 9 eruption from the solar corona up to Earth using 3D magnetohydrodynamic heliospheric simulations with three different configurations of the modeled CME. We find the best match between observed and modeled arrival at Earth for the simulation run that features a toroidal flux rope structure of the CME ejecta, but caution that different approaches may be more or less useful depending on the CME-observer geometry when evaluating the space weather impact of eruptions that are extreme in terms of their large size and high degree of asymmetry. We discuss our results in the context of both advancing our understanding of the physics of CME evolution and future improvements to space weather forecasting.