Non-coresident family as a driver of migration change in a crisis: The case of the COVID-19 pandemic

TL;DR

This study reveals that during the COVID-19 pandemic, migration patterns in the U.S. shifted towards closer proximity to family, especially in cities with more parental family availability, highlighting kinship's role in migration decisions during crises.

Contribution

It provides empirical evidence that extended family ties significantly influence migration changes during a crisis, using large-scale census and mobile data.

Findings

Migration towards family increased during COVID-19

Cities with more parental family availability saw larger positive net in-migration

Family proximity influenced migration beyond density and cost factors

Abstract

Changes in U.S. migration during the COVID-19 pandemic show that many moved to less populated cities from larger cities, deviating from previous trends. In this study, building on prior work in the literature showing that the abundance of family ties is inversely related to population size, we analyze these migration changes with a focus on the crucial, yet overlooked factor of extended family. Employing two large-scale data sets, census microdata and mobile phone GPS relocation data, we show a collection of empirical results that paints a picture of migration change affected by kin. Namely, we find that people migrated closer to family at higher rates after the COVID-19 pandemic started. Moreover, even controlling for factors such as population density and cost of living, we find that changes in net in-migration tended to be larger and positive in cities with larger proportions of people who can be parents to adult children (our proxy for parental family availability, which is also inversely related to population size). Our study advances the demography-disaster nexus and amplifies ongoing literature highlighting the role of broader kinship systems in large-scale socioeconomic phenomena.