Why and How Did the COVID Pandemic End Abruptly?

TL;DR

This paper uses phase transition theory and thermodynamic scaling to explain the abrupt end of the COVID pandemic, linking key mutations to changes in contagiousness and pandemic severity.

Contribution

It introduces a novel application of thermodynamic scaling to COVID evolution, explaining how specific mutations influenced pandemic dynamics and mortality.

Findings

Key mutations reduced pandemic deaths through mechanical effects.

Early 2023 strains confirm the mutation-driven path.

Later mutations further strengthened the path.

Abstract

Phase transition theory, implemented quantitatively by thermodynamic scaling, has explained the evolution of Coronavirus extremely high contagiousness caused by a few key mutations from CoV2003 to CoV2019 identified among hundreds, as well as the later 2021 evolution to Omicron caused by 30 mutations. It also showed that the 2022 strain BA.5 with five mutations began a new path. Here we show that the early 2023 strains BKK with one stiffening mutation confirm that path, and the single flexing mutation of a later 2023 variant EG.5 strengthens it further. The few mutations of the new path have greatly reduced pandemic deaths, for mechanical reasons proposed here.