Uncertainty Quantification in Inverse Models in Hydrology

TL;DR

This paper introduces a probabilistic inverse modeling framework in hydrology that improves the estimation of basin characteristics and streamflow prediction while quantifying uncertainty to enhance model explainability and reliability.

Contribution

It presents a knowledge-guided, probabilistic inverse model that outperforms state-of-the-art methods in estimating basin characteristics and streamflow, with enhanced uncertainty quantification.

Findings

3% improvement in basin characteristic estimation (R^2)

6% improvement in streamflow prediction (forward model)

10% better dispersion of epistemic uncertainty

Abstract

In hydrology, modeling streamflow remains a challenging task due to the limited availability of basin characteristics information such as soil geology and geomorphology. These characteristics may be noisy due to measurement errors or may be missing altogether. To overcome this challenge, we propose a knowledge-guided, probabilistic inverse modeling method for recovering physical characteristics from streamflow and weather data, which are more readily available. We compare our framework with state-of-the-art inverse models for estimating river basin characteristics. We also show that these estimates offer improvement in streamflow modeling as opposed to using the original basin characteristic values. Our inverse model offers 3\% improvement in R$^2$ for the inverse model (basin characteristic estimation) and 6\% for the forward model (streamflow prediction). Our framework also offers improved explainability since it can quantify uncertainty in both the inverse and the forward model. Uncertainty quantification plays a pivotal role in improving the explainability of machine learning models by providing additional insights into the reliability and limitations of model predictions. In our analysis, we assess the quality of the uncertainty estimates. Compared to baseline uncertainty quantification methods, our framework offers 10\% improvement in the dispersion of epistemic uncertainty and 13\% improvement in coverage rate. This information can help stakeholders understand the level of uncertainty associated with the predictions and provide a more comprehensive view of the potential outcomes.