Applications of Improvements to the Pythagorean Won-Loss Expectation in Optimizing Rosters

TL;DR

This paper improves the Pythagorean win-loss expectation model by allowing different Weibull distribution parameters for runs scored and allowed, resulting in more accurate MLB season predictions through numerical methods.

Contribution

It extends Miller's theoretical model to account for different shape parameters, enhancing fit and predictive accuracy over previous models.

Findings

Better fit to MLB data from 1994-2023.

Higher accuracy in season win predictions.

Requires numerical integration instead of a closed-form expression.

Abstract

Bill James' Pythagorean formula has for decades done an excellent job estimating a baseball team's winning percentage from very little data: if the average runs scored and allowed are denoted respectively by ${\rm RS}$ and ${\rm RA}$, there is some $\gamma \approx 2$ such that the winning percentage is approximately ${\rm RS}^\gamma / ({\rm RS}^\gamma + {\rm RA}^\gamma)$. One use case is to determine the value of potential signings to the team, as it allows us to estimate how many more wins one obtains over a season given an estimated change in run production and concession. We summarize earlier work on the subject, and extend the earlier theoretical model of Miller (who assumed the home and away teams' runs arise from independent Weibull distributions with the same shape parameter $\gamma$; this has been observed to describe the observed run data well and yields a win probability equivalent to that of James' formula). We extend this work to model runs scored and allowed as being drawn from independent Weibull distributions with different shape parameters, and then consider the first and second moments to solve a system of four equations in the four unknowns. Doing so fits the training data better, yielding a higher winning percentage over the last 30 MLB seasons (1994 to 2023). This comes at a small cost as we no longer have a closed form expression for the win probability, but must evaluate a two-dimensional integral of Weibull distributions and numerically estimate the solutions to the system of equations. These are trivial to do with simple computational programs.