Efficient Interpretable Nonlinear Modeling for Multiple Time Series

TL;DR

This paper introduces an efficient nonlinear modeling approach for multiple time series that captures dependencies with complexity similar to linear models, using invertible neural networks and sparse VAR coefficients.

Contribution

It proposes a novel two-step modeling framework combining linear VAR in latent space with component-wise invertible neural networks, improving dependency identification and prediction accuracy.

Findings

Improves support recovery of VAR coefficients.

Enhances time-series prediction accuracy.

Maintains computational complexity comparable to linear models.

Abstract

Predictive linear and nonlinear models based on kernel machines or deep neural networks have been used to discover dependencies among time series. This paper proposes an efficient nonlinear modeling approach for multiple time series, with a complexity comparable to linear vector autoregressive (VAR) models while still incorporating nonlinear interactions among different time-series variables. The modeling assumption is that the set of time series is generated in two steps: first, a linear VAR process in a latent space, and second, a set of invertible and Lipschitz continuous nonlinear mappings that are applied per sensor, that is, a component-wise mapping from each latent variable to a variable in the measurement space. The VAR coefficient identification provides a topology representation of the dependencies among the aforementioned variables. The proposed approach models each component-wise nonlinearity using an invertible neural network and imposes sparsity on the VAR coefficients to reflect the parsimonious dependencies usually found in real applications. To efficiently solve the formulated optimization problems, a custom algorithm is devised combining proximal gradient descent, stochastic primal-dual updates, and projection to enforce the corresponding constraints. Experimental results on both synthetic and real data sets show that the proposed algorithm improves the identification of the support of the VAR coefficients in a parsimonious manner while also improving the time-series prediction, as compared to the current state-of-the-art methods.