Sociological Cycles: The accumulated discrepancy between appearance and reality as driver

TL;DR

This paper explores societal oscillations, such as hype cycles, highlighting how discrepancies between appearance and reality drive these recurring patterns across various domains.

Contribution

It introduces the concept of sociological cycles driven by accumulated discrepancies between perception and reality, emphasizing their prevalence and societal impact.

Findings

Hype cycles are a common form of societal oscillation.

Discrepancies between appearance and reality fuel these cycles.

Such cycles significantly influence societal behavior and decision-making.

Abstract

Oscillations are observed in all branches of science and culture, ranging from the behavior of ele-mentary particles, atoms, molecules in simple chemical or physical systems or even in complex organisms, up to oscillations of the behavior of complex organisms such as human beings. Exam-ples of the latter are phenomena as different as waves of public taste, particularly obvious in fash-ion, or periodically repeated surplus or deficiency of qualified jobs in a certain profession. In the focus of the presentation are those cycles that are characterized by periodical sequences of over- and under-estimation (hype cycles). They are not only ubiquitous but also of great impact on and hence of great interest for society. Many of the other oscillation modes, though, can be mapped on this.