Forecasting Solar Energetic Proton Integral Fluxes with Bi-Directional Long Short-Term Memory Neural Networks

TL;DR

This study employs bi-directional LSTM neural networks to forecast solar energetic proton fluxes across multiple energy channels and forecast windows, utilizing historical solar activity data to improve space weather predictions.

Contribution

It introduces a novel application of BiLSTM neural networks for SEP flux forecasting, integrating multiple solar activity indicators for enhanced prediction accuracy.

Findings

BiLSTM models outperform traditional models in SEP flux prediction.

Forecast accuracy improves with longer input data history.

Model validation shows reliable out-of-sample performance.

Abstract

Solar energetic particles are mainly protons and originate from the Sun during solar flares or coronal shock waves. Forecasting the Solar Energetic Protons (SEP) flux is critical for several operational sectors, such as communication and navigation systems, space exploration missions, and aviation flights, as the hazardous radiation may endanger astronauts', aviation crew and passengers' health, the delicate electronic components of satellites, space stations, and ground power stations. Therefore, the prediction of the SEP flux is of high importance to our lives and may help mitigate the negative impacts of one of the serious space weather transient phenomena on the near-Earth space environment. Numerous SEP prediction models are being developed with a variety of approaches, such as empirical models, probabilistic models, physics-based models, and AI-based models. In this work, we use the bi-directional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) neural network model architecture to train SEP forecasting models for 3 standard integral GOES channels (>10 MeV, >30 MeV, and >60 MeV) with 3 forecast windows (1-day, 2-day, and 3-day ahead) based on daily data obtained from the OMNIWeb database from 1976 to 2019. As the SEP variability is modulated by the solar cycle, we select input parameters that capture the short-term, typically within a span of a few hours, and long-term, typically spanning several days, fluctuations in solar activity. We take the F10.7 index, the sunspot number, the time series of logarithm of the x-ray flux, the solar wind speed, and the average strength of the interplanetary magnetic field as input parameters to our model. The results are validated with an out-of-sample testing set and benchmarked with other types of models.