An Explainable Deep-learning Model of Proton Auroras on Mars

TL;DR

This paper presents a data-driven neural network model that accurately predicts proton auroras on Mars using MAVEN observations, revealing key influencing factors and potential biases in the data.

Contribution

It introduces the first purely data-driven neural network model for Mars proton auroras, utilizing SHAP analysis to interpret feature importance and data biases.

Findings

High correlation (0.94) between model predictions and observed Lyman alpha intensities.

Solar zenith angle, solar longitude, and solar wind parameters are key factors influencing auroras.

Model performance can be improved by addressing data biases and measurement interdependencies.

Abstract

Proton auroras are widely observed on the dayside of Mars, identified as a significant intensity enhancement in the hydrogen Lyman alpha (121.6 nm) emission between 110 - 150 km altitudes. Solar wind protons penetrating as energetic neutral atoms into Mars thermosphere are thought to be primarily responsible for these auroras. Recent observations of spatially localized (patchy) proton auroras suggest a possible direct deposition of protons into Mars atmosphere during unstable solar wind conditions. Improving our understanding of proton auroras is therefore important for characterizing the solar wind interaction with Mars atmosphere. Here, we develop a first purely data-driven model of proton auroras using Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) in-situ observations and limb scans of Ly-alpha emissions between 2014 - 2022. We train an artificial neural network (ANN) that reproduces individual Lyman alpha intensities and relative Lyman alpha peak intensity enhancements with a Pearson correlation of 0.94 and 0.60 respectively for the test data, along with a faithful reconstruction of the shape of the observed Lyman alpha emission altitude profiles. By performing a SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis, we find that solar zenith angle, solar longitude, CO2 atmosphere variability, solar wind speed and temperature are the most important features for the modeled Lyman alpha peak intensity enhancements. Additionally, we find that the modeled peak intensity enhancements are high for early local time hours, particularly near polar latitudes, as well as weaker induced magnetic fields. Through SHAP analysis, we also identify the influence of biases in the training data and interdependecies between the measurements used for the modeling, and an improvement on those aspects can significantly improve the performance and applicability of the ANN model.