Computational limits to the legibility of the imaged human brain

TL;DR

This study systematically evaluates the ability of advanced neuroimaging and machine learning models to predict individual human brain characteristics, revealing high predictability for some traits but limited success for others, indicating current limitations in brain imaging interpretability.

Contribution

The paper provides a comprehensive large-scale analysis of the limits of predicting individual brain traits from neuroimaging data using state-of-the-art models.

Findings

High predictability for sex, age, and weight.

Low predictability for psychological traits and other characteristics.

Structural and functional imaging are insufficient for certain individual traits.

Abstract

Our knowledge of the organisation of the human brain at the population-level is yet to translate into power to predict functional differences at the individual-level, limiting clinical applications, and casting doubt on the generalisability of inferred mechanisms. It remains unknown whether the difficulty arises from the absence of individuating biological patterns within the brain, or from limited power to access them with the models and compute at our disposal. Here we comprehensively investigate the resolvability of such patterns with data and compute at unprecedented scale. Across 23 810 unique participants from UK Biobank, we systematically evaluate the predictability of 25 individual biological characteristics, from all available combinations of structural and functional neuroimaging data. Over 4526 GPU hours of computation, we train, optimize, and evaluate out-of-sample 700 individual predictive models, including fully-connected feed-forward neural networks of demographic, psychological, serological, chronic disease, and functional connectivity characteristics, and both uni- and multi-modal 3D convolutional neural network models of macro- and micro-structural brain imaging. We find a marked discrepancy between the high predictability of sex (balanced accuracy 99.7%), age (mean absolute error 2.048 years, R2 0.859), and weight (mean absolute error 2.609Kg, R2 0.625), for which we set new state-of-the-art performance, and the surprisingly low predictability of other characteristics. Neither structural nor functional imaging predicted psychology better than the coincidence of chronic disease (p<0.05). Serology predicted chronic disease (p<0.05) and was best predicted by it (p<0.001), followed by structural neuroimaging (p<0.05). Our findings suggest either more informative imaging or more powerful models are needed to decipher individual level characteristics from the human brain.