Resource Adequacy and Capacity Procurement: Metrics and Decision Support Analysis

TL;DR

This paper critiques current resource adequacy metrics and capacity procurement practices, proposing risk-averse alternatives and visualizations to better align with decision maker interests, demonstrated through a Great Britain case study.

Contribution

It introduces alternative risk metrics and visualizations for adequacy assessment, enhancing decision support beyond traditional methods.

Findings

Risk profile varies significantly with wind capacity

Current metrics may not fully capture decision maker risks

Broader outputs improve capacity planning decisions

Abstract

Resource adequacy studies typically use standard metrics such as Loss of Load Expectation and Expected Energy Unserved to quantify the risk of supply shortfalls. This paper critiques present approaches to adequacy assessment and capacity procurement in terms of their relevance to decision maker interests, before demonstrating alternatives including risk-averse metrics and visualisations of wider risk profile. This is illustrated with results for a Great Britain example, in which the risk profile varies substantially with the installed capacity of wind generation. This paper goes beyond previous literature through its critical discussion of how current practices reflect decision maker interests; and how decision making can be improved using a broader range of outputs available from standard models.