A multiple k-means cluster ensemble framework for clustering citation trajectories

TL;DR

This paper introduces a feature-based multiple k-means clustering ensemble to analyze citation trajectories, revealing diverse patterns of article impact over time, with implications for understanding knowledge diffusion and impact prediction.

Contribution

It presents a generalized, parameter-independent clustering framework that captures all trajectory types, overcoming limitations of prior threshold-based methods.

Findings

Identified four distinct citation trajectory patterns.

Achieved linear runtime for large datasets.

Most articles follow specific impact trajectories.

Abstract

Citation maturity time varies for different articles. However, the impact of all articles is measured in a fixed window. Clustering their citation trajectories helps understand the knowledge diffusion process and reveals that not all articles gain immediate success after publication. Moreover, clustering trajectories is necessary for paper impact recommendation algorithms. It is a challenging problem because citation time series exhibit significant variability due to non linear and non stationary characteristics. Prior works propose a set of arbitrary thresholds and a fixed rule based approach. All methods are primarily parameter dependent. Consequently, it leads to inconsistencies while defining similar trajectories and ambiguities regarding their specific number. Most studies only capture extreme trajectories. Thus, a generalised clustering framework is required. This paper proposes a feature based multiple k means cluster ensemble framework. 1,95,783 and 41,732 well cited articles from the Microsoft Academic Graph data are considered for clustering short term (10 year) and long term (30 year) trajectories, respectively. It has linear run time. Four distinct trajectories are obtained Early Rise Rapid Decline (2.2%), Early Rise Slow Decline (45%), Delayed Rise No Decline (53%), and Delayed Rise Slow Decline (0.8%). Individual trajectory differences for two different spans are studied. Most papers exhibit Early Rise Slow Decline and Delayed Rise No Decline patterns. The growth and decay times, cumulative citation distribution, and peak characteristics of individual trajectories are redefined empirically. A detailed comparative study reveals our proposed methodology can detect all distinct trajectory classes.