A semi-parametric model for assessing the effect of temperature on ice accumulation rate from Antarctic ice core data

TL;DR

This paper introduces a semi-parametric model to analyze how temperature influences ice accumulation rates in Antarctic ice cores, providing insights into paleoclimatic patterns and ice dynamics over hundreds of thousands of years.

Contribution

The paper develops a novel semi-parametric modeling approach with proven estimator consistency, validated through simulations and applied to Antarctic ice core data.

Findings

Strong linear relationship between temperature and accumulation rate.

Model fits Antarctic ice core data well over extensive timescales.

Thinning pattern observed in accumulation rates aids understanding of ice processes.

Abstract

In this paper, we present a semiparametric model for describing the effect of temperature on Antarctic ice accumulation on a paleoclimatic time scale. The model is motivated by sharp ups and downs in the rate of ice accumulation apparent from ice core data records, which are synchronous with movements of temperature. We prove strong consistency of the estimators under reasonable conditions. We conduct extensive simulations to assess the performance of the estimators and bootstrap based standard errors and confidence limits for the requisite range of sample sizes. Analysis of ice core data from two Antarctic locations over several hundred thousand years shows a reasonable fit. The apparent accumulation rate exhibits a thinning pattern that should facilitate the understanding of ice condensation, transformation and flow over the ages. There is a very strong linear relationship between temperature and the apparent accumulation rate adjusted for thinning.