Comparative Evaluation of Metaheuristic Algorithms for Hyperparameter Selection in Short-Term Weather Forecasting

TL;DR

This paper compares metaheuristic algorithms like GA, DE, and PSO for optimizing hyperparameters in deep learning weather forecasting models, showing their effectiveness in improving accuracy over traditional methods.

Contribution

It introduces a systematic comparison of metaheuristic algorithms for hyperparameter tuning in weather forecasting models, highlighting their impact on model performance.

Findings

Metaheuristic algorithms improve forecasting accuracy.

Optimal hyperparameters vary across models.

Metaheuristics outperform traditional tuning methods.

Abstract

Weather forecasting plays a vital role in numerous sectors, but accurately capturing the complex dynamics of weather systems remains a challenge for traditional statistical models. Apart from Auto Regressive time forecasting models like ARIMA, deep learning techniques (Vanilla ANNs, LSTM and GRU networks), have shown promise in improving forecasting accuracy by capturing temporal dependencies. This paper explores the application of metaheuristic algorithms, namely Genetic Algorithm (GA), Differential Evolution (DE), and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), to automate the search for optimal hyperparameters in these model architectures. Metaheuristic algorithms excel in global optimization, offering robustness, versatility, and scalability in handling non-linear problems. We present a comparative analysis of different model architectures integrated with metaheuristic optimization, evaluating their performance in weather forecasting based on metrics such as Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results demonstrate the potential of metaheuristic algorithms in enhancing weather forecasting accuracy \& helps in determining the optimal set of hyper-parameters for each model. The paper underscores the importance of harnessing advanced optimization techniques to select the most suitable metaheuristic algorithm for the given weather forecasting task.