Cosmological Inflation and Meta-Empirical Theory Assessment

TL;DR

This paper critically assesses the non-empirical support for cosmological inflation using Dawid's MEA methodology, finding current evidence insufficient for strong non-empirical confirmation and discussing future prospects.

Contribution

It applies Dawid's Meta-Empirical Assessment to cosmological inflation, highlighting limitations in its non-empirical support and proposing directions for future evaluation.

Findings

MEA does not currently support non-empirical confirmation of inflation

Unexpected Explanatory Coherence is observed but insufficient for confirmation

Meta-Inductive Argument for inflation is not justified by current evidence

Abstract

I apply Dawid's Meta-Empirical Assessment (MEA) methodology to the theory of cosmological inflation. I argue that applying this methodology does not currently offer a compelling case for ascribing non-empirical confirmation to cosmological inflation. In particular, I argue that despite displaying strong instances of Unexpected Explanatory Coherence (UEA), it is premature to evaluate the theory on the basis of the No Alternatives Argument (NAA). More significantly though, I argue that the theory of cosmological inflation fails to sustain a convincing Meta-Inductive Argument (MIA) because the empirical evidence and theoretical successes that it seeks to draw meta-empirical support from do not warrant a meta-inductive inference to inflation. I conclude by assessing how future developments could pave the way towards crafting a more compelling case for the non-empirical confirmation of cosmological inflation.