Survival Prediction from Imbalance colorectal cancer dataset using hybrid sampling methods and tree-based classifiers

TL;DR

This study develops a pipeline combining sampling techniques and tree-based classifiers to improve survival prediction accuracy for imbalanced colorectal cancer datasets, especially for 1-year survival prediction.

Contribution

Introduces a hybrid sampling pipeline with tree classifiers that enhances minority class prediction in highly imbalanced colorectal cancer survival datasets.

Findings

Proposed method with LGBM achieves 72.30% sensitivity for 1-year survival.

RENN combined with LGBM reaches 80.81% sensitivity for 3-year survival.

Hybrid sampling improves minority class prediction in imbalanced datasets.

Abstract

Background and Objective: Colorectal cancer is a high mortality cancer. Clinical data analysis plays a crucial role in predicting the survival of colorectal cancer patients, enabling clinicians to make informed treatment decisions. However, utilizing clinical data can be challenging, especially when dealing with imbalanced outcomes. This paper focuses on developing algorithms to predict 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival of colorectal cancer patients using clinical datasets, with particular emphasis on the highly imbalanced 1-year survival prediction task. To address this issue, we propose a method that creates a pipeline of some of standard balancing techniques to increase the true positive rate. Evaluation is conducted on a colorectal cancer dataset from the SEER database. Methods: The pre-processing step consists of removing records with missing values and merging categories. The minority class of 1-year and 3-year survival tasks consists of 10% and 20% of the data, respectively. Edited Nearest Neighbor, Repeated edited nearest neighbor (RENN), Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Techniques (SMOTE), and pipelines of SMOTE and RENN approaches were used and compared for balancing the data with tree-based classifiers. Decision Trees, Random Forest, Extra Tree, eXtreme Gradient Boosting, and Light Gradient Boosting (LGBM) are used in this article. Method. Results: The performance evaluation utilizes a 5-fold cross-validation approach. In the case of highly imbalanced datasets (1-year), our proposed method with LGBM outperforms other sampling methods with the sensitivity of 72.30%. For the task of imbalance (3-year survival), the combination of RENN and LGBM achieves a sensitivity of 80.81%, indicating that our proposed method works best for highly imbalanced datasets. Conclusions: Our proposed method significantly improves mortality prediction for the minority class of colorectal cancer patients.