Inferring Long-term Dynamics of Ecological Communities Using Combinatorics

TL;DR

The paper introduces WENDyS, a combinatorial framework that predicts all possible long-term ecological community outcomes based on interaction strengths and growth rates, avoiding extensive parameter sweeps and aiding conservation efforts.

Contribution

It presents a novel combinatorial method to classify all potential community dynamics from limited data, streamlining ecological predictions and management strategies.

Findings

Identifies all possible stable states of coral reef communities.

Shows how competition influences species exclusion.

Demonstrates the framework's utility in ecological management.

Abstract

In an increasingly changing world, predicting the fate of species across the globe has become a major concern. Understanding how the population dynamics of various species and communities will unfold requires predictive tools that experimental data alone can not capture. Here, we introduce our combinatorial framework, Widespread Ecological Networks and their Dynamical Signatures (WENDyS) which, using data on the relative strengths of interactions and growth rates within a community of species predicts all possible long-term outcomes of the community. To this end, WENDyS partitions the multidimensional parameter space (formed by the strengths of interactions and growth rates) into a finite number of regions, each corresponding to a unique set of coarse population dynamics. Thus, WENDyS ultimately creates a library of all possible outcomes for the community. On the one hand, our framework avoids the typical ``parameter sweeps'' that have become ubiquitous across other forms of mathematical modeling, which can be computationally expensive for ecologically realistic models and examples. On the other hand, WENDyS opens the opportunity for interdisciplinary teams to use standard experimental data (i.e., strengths of interactions and growth rates) to filter down the possible end states of a community. To demonstrate the latter, here we present a case study from the Indonesian Coral Reef. We analyze how different interactions between anemone and anemonefish species lead to alternative stable states for the coral reef community, and how competition can increase the chance of exclusion for one or more species. WENDyS, thus, can be used to anticipate ecological outcomes and test the effectiveness of management (e.g., conservation) strategies.