Peculiar orbital characteristics of Earth quasi-satellite 469219 Kamo`oalewa: implications for the Yarkovsky detection and orbital uncertainty propagation

TL;DR

This study analyzes the orbital characteristics of Earth quasi-satellite 469219 Kamo`oalewa, detecting a weak Yarkovsky effect, and explores how its quasi-satellite resonance influences orbital uncertainty and long-term stability.

Contribution

It provides the first weak detection of the Yarkovsky effect on Kamo`oalewa and examines how its quasi-satellite resonance affects orbital uncertainty propagation over time.

Findings

Weak Yarkovsky effect detected with A2 = -1.075±0.447×10^{-13} au/d^2

Orbital uncertainty mainly from geocentric radial direction (2010-2020) and heliocentric transverse (2020-2030)

Quasi-satellite resonance stabilizes orbital precision over long timescales

Abstract

469219 Kamo`oalewa is selected as one of the primary targets of Tianwen-2 mission, which is currently believed to be the most stable quasi-satellite of Earth. Here we derive a weak detection of the Yarkovsky effect for Kamo`oalewa, giving $A_2 = -1.075\pm0.447\times 10^{-13} \rm{au/d}^2$, with the available ground-based optical observations from Minor Planet Center and a relatively conservative weighting scheme. Due to the quasi-satellite resonance with Earth, we show that the detection of Yarkovsky effect by orbital fitting with astrometric observations becomes difficult as its orbital drift shows a slow oscillatory growth resulting from the Yarkovsky effect. In addition, we extensively explore the characteristics of orbital uncertainty propagation and find that the positional uncertainty mainly arises from the geocentric radial direction in 2010-2020, and then concentrates in the heliocentric transverse direction in 2020-2030. Furthermore, the heliocentric transverse uncertainty is clearly monthly dependent, which can arrive at a minimum around January and a maximum around July as the orbit moves towards the leading and trailing edges, respectively, in 2025-2027. Finally, we investigate a long-term uncertainty propagation in the quasi-satellite regime, implying that the quasi-satellite resonance with Earth may play a crucial role in constraining the increase of uncertainty over time. Such interesting feature further implies that the orbital precision of Kamo`oalewa is relatively stable at its quasi-satellite phase, which may also be true for other quasi-satellites of Earth.