Mapping the prevalence of cancer risk factors at the small area level in Australia

TL;DR

This study develops high-resolution small area estimates of cancer risk factors in Australia using advanced Bayesian methods, revealing significant spatial disparities that can inform targeted prevention strategies.

Contribution

It introduces a novel Bayesian two-stage small area estimation approach incorporating diverse auxiliary data to produce detailed cancer risk factor maps in Australia.

Findings

Higher prevalence of unhealthy behaviors in remote areas

Significant spatial disparities in cancer risk factors

Estimates support targeted prevention policies

Abstract

Cancer is a significant health issue globally and it is well known that cancer risk varies geographically. However in many countries there are no small area level data on cancer risk factors with high resolution and complete reach, which hinders the development of targeted prevention strategies. Using Australia as a case study, the 2017-2018 National Health Survey was used to generate prevalence estimates for 2221 small areas across Australia for eight cancer risk factor measures covering smoking, alcohol, physical activity, diet and weight. Utilising a recently developed Bayesian two-stage small area estimation methodology, the model incorporated survey-only covariates, spatial smoothing and hierarchical modelling techniques, along with a vast array of small area level auxiliary data, including census, remoteness, and socioeconomic data. The models borrowed strength from previously published cancer risk estimates provided by the Social Health Atlases of Australia. Estimates were internally and externally validated. We illustrated that in 2017-18 health behaviours across Australia exhibited more spatial disparities than previously realised by improving the reach and resolution of formerly published cancer risk factors. The derived estimates reveal higher prevalence of unhealthy behaviours in more remote areas, and areas of lower socioeconomic status; a trend that aligns well with previous work. Our study addresses the gaps in small area level cancer risk factor estimates in Australia. The new estimates provide improved spatial resolution and reach and will enable more targeted cancer prevention strategies at the small area level, supporting policy makers, researchers, and the general public in understanding the spatial distribution of cancer risk factors in Australia. To help disseminate the results of this work, they will be made available in the Australian Cancer Atlas 2.0.