Dynamic landslide susceptibility mapping over recent three decades to uncover variations in landslide causes in subtropical urban mountainous areas

TL;DR

This study develops a dynamic, interpretable landslide susceptibility mapping approach over three decades in Hong Kong, revealing the influence of extreme rainfall and climate change on landslide causes.

Contribution

It introduces a meta-learning based method with model interpretability for dynamic landslide susceptibility assessment over time.

Findings

Terrain slope and extreme rainfall are primary landslide triggers.

Extreme rainfall variations, linked to climate change, significantly affect landslide causes.

Landslide susceptibility maps align with climate and policy changes.

Abstract

Landslide susceptibility assessment (LSA) is of paramount importance in mitigating landslide risks. Recently, there has been a surge in the utilization of data-driven methods for predicting landslide susceptibility due to the growing availability of aerial and satellite data. Nonetheless, the rapid oscillations within the landslide-inducing environment (LIE), primarily due to significant changes in external triggers such as rainfall, pose difficulties for contemporary data-driven LSA methodologies to accommodate LIEs over diverse timespans. This study presents dynamic landslide susceptibility mapping that simply employs multiple predictive models for annual LSA. In practice, this will inevitably encounter small sample problems due to the limited number of landslide samples in certain years. Another concern arises owing to the majority of the existing LSA approaches train black-box models to fit distinct datasets, yet often failing in generalization and providing comprehensive explanations concerning the interactions between input features and predictions. Accordingly, we proposed to meta-learn representations with fast adaptation ability using a few samples and gradient updates; and apply SHAP for each model interpretation and landslide feature permutation. Additionally, we applied MT-InSAR for LSA result enhancement and validation. The chosen study area is Lantau Island, Hong Kong, where we conducted a comprehensive dynamic LSA spanning from 1992 to 2019. The model interpretation results demonstrate that the primary factors responsible for triggering landslides in Lantau Island are terrain slope and extreme rainfall. The results also indicate that the variation in landslide causes can be primarily attributed to extreme rainfall events, which result from global climate change, and the implementation of the Landslip Prevention and Mitigation Programme (LPMitP) by the Hong Kong government.