Projections of Discovery Potentials from Expected Background

TL;DR

This paper quantitatively analyzes the projected discovery sensitivities in experiments, comparing statistical methods and background uncertainties, with applications to neutrinoless double beta decay searches.

Contribution

It provides a comprehensive comparison of Poisson and likelihood analyses for discovery potential, including background uncertainties and additional measurable constraints.

Findings

Poisson analysis underestimates required signal strength compared to continuous approximation.

Including additional measurable variables reduces the needed signal strength.

Background uncertainties significantly impact the projected sensitivities.

Abstract

Background channels with their expected strength and uncertainty levels are usually known in searches of novel phenomena prior to the experiments are conducted at their design stage. We quantitatively study the projected sensitivities in terms of discovery potentials. These are essential for the optimizations of the experimental specifications as well as of the cost-effectiveness in various investment. Sensitivities in counting analysis are derived with complete Poisson statistics and its continuous approximation, and are compared with those using maximum likelihood analysis in which additional measurables are included as signatures. The roles and effects due to uncertainties in the background estimates are studied. Two expected features to establish positive effects are verified and quantified: (i) In counting-only experiments, the required signal strength can be derived with complete Poisson analysis, and the continuous approximation would underestimate the results. (ii) Incorporating continuous variables as additional constraints would reduce the required signal strength relative to that of counting-only analysis. The formulations are applied to the case on the experimental searches of neutrinoless double beta decay in which both ambient and two-neutrino background are considered.