Hydrogen Supply Infrastructure Network Planning Approach towards Chicken-egg Conundrum

TL;DR

This paper proposes a novel multi-network planning model for hydrogen infrastructure that addresses the chicken-egg problem using a distributionally robust optimization with decision-dependent uncertainty, reducing costs and improving scalability.

Contribution

It introduces a decision-dependent uncertainty framework with a Wasserstein ambiguity set and an improved scenario reduction method for hydrogen infrastructure planning.

Findings

Reduces planning costs by at least 10.4% compared to traditional methods.

Effectively models the causal relationship between HFCVs and HRSs.

Enhances computational efficiency for large-scale hydrogen infrastructure planning.

Abstract

In the early commercialization stage of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs), reasonable hydrogen supply infrastructure (HSI) planning decisions is a premise for promoting the popularization of HFCVs. However, there is a strong causality between HFCVs and hydrogen refueling stations (HRSs): the planning decisions of HRSs could affect the hydrogen refueling demand of HFCVs, and the growth of demand would in turn stimulate the further investment in HRSs, which is also known as the ``chicken and egg'' conundrum. Meanwhile, the hydrogen demand is uncertain with insufficient prior knowledge, and thus there is a decision-dependent uncertainty (DDU) in the planning issue. This poses great challenges to solving the optimization problem. To this end, this work establishes a multi-network HSI planning model coordinating hydrogen, power, and transportation networks. Then, to reflect the causal relationship between HFCVs and HRSs effectively without sufficient historical data, a distributionally robust optimization framework with decision-dependent uncertainty is developed. The uncertainty of hydrogen demand is modeled as a Wasserstein ambiguity set with a decision-dependent empirical probability distribution. Subsequently, to reduce the computational complexity caused by the introduction of a large number of scenarios and high-dimensional nonlinear constraints, we developed an improved distribution shaping method and techniques of scenario and variable reduction to derive the solvable form with less computing burden. Finally, the simulation results demonstrate that this method can reduce costs by at least 10.4% compared with traditional methods and will be more effective in large-scale HSI planning issues. Further, we put forward effective suggestions for the policymakers and investors to formulate relevant policies and decisions.