A spatio-temporal hybrid Strauss hardcore point process for forest fire occurrences

TL;DR

This paper introduces a novel spatio-temporal point process model combining hybridization and hardcore distances to better capture complex interactions in forest fire data, with applications in environmental modeling.

Contribution

The paper presents a new hybrid Strauss hardcore point process model that allows for multi-scale interactions in spatio-temporal data, with efficient inference and simulation methods.

Findings

Model effectively captures complex interactions in forest fire data.

Compared to existing models, it provides better fit and interpretability.

Applied successfully to datasets from France and Spain.

Abstract

We propose a new point process model that combines, in the spatio-temporal setting, both multi-scaling by hybridization and hardcore distances. Our so-called hybrid Strauss hardcore point process model allows different types of interaction, at different spatial and/or temporal scales, that might be of interest in environmental and biological applications. The inference and simulation of the model are implemented using the logistic likelihood approach and the birth-death Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. Our model is illustrated and compared to others on two datasets of forest fire occurrences respectively in France and Spain.