The effect of host population heterogeneity on epidemic outbreaks

TL;DR

This paper reviews how host population heterogeneity influences epidemic outbreaks and explores how contact patterns depend on population size and composition, aiming to inspire further research in this area.

Contribution

It provides a comprehensive review of heterogeneity effects and introduces new modeling considerations for contact patterns based on population characteristics.

Findings

Heterogeneity significantly impacts epidemic dynamics.

Contact patterns vary with population size and composition.

Proposes new submodels for transmission based on population features.

Abstract

In the first part of this paper, we review old and new results about the influence of host population heterogeneity on (various characteristics of) epidemic outbreaks. In the second part we highlight a modelling issue that so far has received little attention: how do contact patterns, and hence transmission opportunities, depend on the size and the composition of the host population? Without any claim on completeness, we offer a range of potential (quasi-mechanistic) submodels. The overall aim of the paper is to describe the state-of-the-art and to catalyse new work.