Surrogate Model for Geological CO2 Storage and Its Use in Hierarchical MCMC History Matching

TL;DR

This paper develops a deep-learning surrogate model for geological CO2 storage, enabling efficient history matching across diverse geological scenarios and reducing uncertainty in model predictions.

Contribution

It extends a recurrent R-U-Net surrogate to handle a wide range of geological scenarios, improving accuracy and efficiency in history matching of CO2 storage models.

Findings

Surrogate model achieves median 1.3% pressure error and 4.5% saturation error.

Hierarchical MCMC workflow effectively reduces geological uncertainty.

Posterior estimates closely match true-model responses.

Abstract

Deep-learning-based surrogate models show great promise for use in geological carbon storage operations. In this work we target an important application - the history matching of storage systems characterized by a high degree of (prior) geological uncertainty. Toward this goal, we extend the recently introduced recurrent R-U-Net surrogate model to treat geomodel realizations drawn from a wide range of geological scenarios. These scenarios are defined by a set of metaparameters, which include the horizontal correlation length, mean and standard deviation of log-permeability, permeability anisotropy ratio, and constants in the porosity-permeability relationship. An infinite number of realizations can be generated for each set of metaparameters, so the range of prior uncertainty is large. The surrogate model is trained with flow simulation results, generated using the open-source simulator GEOS, for 2000 random realizations. The flow problems involve four wells, each injecting 1 Mt CO2/year, for 30 years. The trained surrogate model is shown to provide accurate predictions for new realizations over the full range of geological scenarios, with median relative error of 1.3% in pressure and 4.5% in saturation. The surrogate model is incorporated into a hierarchical Markov chain Monte Carlo history matching workflow, where the goal is to generate history matched geomodel realizations and posterior estimates of the metaparameters. We show that, using observed data from monitoring wells in synthetic `true' models, geological uncertainty is reduced substantially. This leads to posterior 3D pressure and saturation fields that display much closer agreement with the true-model responses than do prior predictions.